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package just a company's turnover in 2000 was 894.68 million yuan, tax 133,950,000 yuan. Since 2000, the company's turnover rate of 10% a year growth, while tax rate of 20% . May I ask how many years, the company's tax equal to its total turnover?
little economic common sense would think that this is an absurd arithmetic! No company in the world will be equal to the turnover tax on the grounds very simple, so long as the company declared bear the heavy burden of taxation of business. However, in order more clearly the logic of the problem, this channel might be out the answer to math problems: about 22 years!
2000 years China's GDP was 8.9468 trillion yuan, fiscal revenue of 1.3395 trillion yuan, after 10 years, calculated according to national statistical standards, GDP of about an average annual (real) growth rate of 9.9%, while average revenue Zeyi (nominal) 19.7% growth rate. By 2009, China's fiscal revenue up to 6.8518 trillion yuan. State Administration of Taxation recently released data show that the national tax revenue in 2010 to complete 7.739 trillion yuan, according to the data kept in 2010, China's fiscal revenue expected to reach 8.7 trillion yuan, fiscal revenue growth is expected to be up to the name of 24%!
Thus, the first 10 years, China's fiscal revenue and GDP growth rate relationship and not out of this simple arithmetic logic. If the Financial income much higher than the GDP growth rate does not change the basic trend of long-term prospects are worrying.
Financial
the internal logic of high growth for 10 years before China is not only to continue to create the . economic development factors, the highest revenue growth in fiscal 2007, the Ministry of Finance has explained, income growth. fiscal revenue soared as the economy, which is easy to understand, but why the growth rate of revenue growth will be faster than the economy do? here mainly profit-driven factors and the progressive effects, for example, the first 10 years in the corporate income tax and personal income tax are much higher than the average growth rate of GDP growth rate.
Second Structural Changes. Simply put, when the GDP growth in the sector with higher tax rates faster than the rate of lower division, the revenue growth will exceed GDP growth rate. For example, secondary and tertiary industries is much higher than the growth rate of the primary industry, import and export sector grew by more than GDP, real estate and real estate prices relative to GDP and growth rate higher price level, including energy and metals prices of basic commodities, including the abolition of foreign income tax benefits, etc., will revenue growth of a structural contribution.
Third, tax collection and management factors. Government and academic consensus that the tax administration in China there are huge work conference that China in the and operating mechanism, the use of modern management methods and information technology, management personnel play an active role in enhancing the effective execution of ... ... and constantly improve the effectiveness of financial management. the three major factors, as well as officials and scholars are concerned about inflation, the statistical coverage, policy adjustments, provisional measures and other factors on the impact of high growth revenue.
financial essentially a phenomenon of government action and public governance. So , high revenue growth is the driving force of what? mainly three factors.
first tax rigidity. tax legislation and government work once they become standards, are likely to continue. tax rigid, rigid, including taxes, the tax rate rigidity and the tax threshold rigidity. Generally speaking, the new taxes than the more common cut taxes, increase the tax rate is also more common than lower taxes, and increase the threshold for certain types of taxes are usually more difficult.
Second, the performance works. the common dream of human public governance is to establish a affordability of care for the people. Now, tax and revenue targets have become the tax authorities, financial management and even government top leaders of the main performance indicators. In other words, higher taxation means higher performance. the first 10 years, the amount of actual completion of the national finances in a number of years away far exceeding the budget target set in early.
Third, the budget impulse. by economists as the representative of Buchanan's public choice theory has revealed a size of the budget of the natural impulse, which is human reason dictates.
sum up, China's fiscal revenue soared, economic and technical analysis is the direct cause, but more profound reason is found in government management and governance among the public.
good or bad: the standard Lost?
American and Marshall Justice has said: hot: high revenue growth in the end, OK? a view that China's fiscal revenue in GDP, has the lowest 1995 close to 10% to 20% now. Academy of Social Sciences published 2010 tax or over-enhanced revenue collection and management methods to continue to promote high growth, sooner or later will have a negative impact, for example, will crowd out private investment, will reduce the incentive to work hard on the effect of citizens, as well as the effective expansion of domestic demand will be suppressed. the long run, high taxes would hurt China's economic growth rate and quality.
The other view is that China's fiscal revenue of high growth is normal, is a reasonable explanation; the same time, the proportion of China's fiscal revenue in GDP in the world and the developed countries, whether within or with developing countries than are low. Therefore, there is still the proportion of GDP, fiscal revenue increased space. As a result, the high revenue growth to be encouraged, The growth rate higher than GDP growth, in order to improve the proportion of fiscal revenue in GDP. This view of a large, multinational experience real data comparison and seemed to give strong support to this view, but there is this view serious logical problems.
logical question one: to focus only on international horizontal comparison, the neglect of the longitudinal study. take a 50-year-old middle-aged body fat and fat intake needed daily to more than a second year-old youth is a long body daily requirement of fat intake, no sense, because the standard of comparison itself is misleading. It was often the OECD (OECD) countries as China more than 30 reference . major Western countries as early as 100 years ago, has basically completed its industrial revolution, and today in the latter stages of industrial society, the welfare state. And now China is a country in the process of industrialization, indiscriminate white, copy the developed countries, financial data, is the lack of political wisdom. This is precisely the situation the best thing about the place of China. Today, most national conditions of China's industrialization is still in a critical stage.
Some scholars have often cited the proportion of developed countries GDP, financial revenue and expenditure data In most countries the average between 40% to 50%, of which Sweden and Finland had the highest proportion of over 50%. According to this standard, the proportion of China's fiscal revenue in GDP is still low. However, Western Europe and North America major developed countries in their industrialization process, when the share is how much? 1913 before the First World War, many countries are not of this proportion to 10%. economists, the statistics of Tanzi and 舒克内西特of 17 major OECD countries, 1870 GDP, government spending accounts for only 10.7%, and only then in 1913 the proportion reached 12.7%. U.S. figures were even lower in 1870 was 7.3%, 7.5% in 1913 .
In other words, the major developed countries in promoting the industrialization process, the implementation of all low-tax rather than high-tax policies. In addition, in developed countries like the United States but also the proportion of fiscal revenue relative to GDP, countries with lower , less than 30%. The CASS report said China's macro tax burden has exceeded 30%. This is higher than the United States, of course, still below the United Kingdom.
logic II: focus only on the fiscal revenue structure to the neglect of fiscal expenditure structure. many scholars that the proportion of developed countries GDP, fiscal revenue, they often ignore the structure of its expenditure. In fact, in these countries, how to spend it with the revenue growth has a close relationship. in the past 100 years or so, the developed countries to achieve fiscal revenue in GDP, down from 10% to over 40% growth, while the most important part of their growth on social welfare spending. Today, the entire social welfare expenditure in developed countries probably account for the entire fiscal revenue and expenditure by 50%. converted about social welfare spending-GDP ratio of over 20% important. If Excluding the proceeds of the revenue and expenditure of social welfare, the majority of developed countries are still not really high-tax countries.
For today's China, the whole structure of financial expenditure, social welfare spending is only about 1 / 4, if the calibration of the revenue-based, this proportion will be lower, much lower than developed countries. As a , without adjusting the structure of fiscal expenditure, if further increase the proportion of fiscal revenue in GDP, the larger will leave future generations of China to become the welfare state is likely to become the first high-tax countries, and when the Chinese want to build welfare state may lack sufficient financial resources to pay the additional costs of social welfare. not yet in place in the social welfare expenditure conditions , the fiscal revenue and expenditure for the future high-growth likely to leave a huge As a reference, the proportion of China's fiscal revenue in GDP is also lower than the middle level in developing countries. First, this view often only takes into account the Ministry of Finance announced the proportion of fiscal revenue in GDP, without taking into account more than 30% of the consolidated tax. Secondly, if by the Financial statistics, the Chinese middle class in developing countries than in the past, what does this mean? Does this mean that China should improve the fiscal revenue in GDP, it? must first figure out is: Low What is good in the middle level, or bad? this point there is no economic analysis of logic. In this view, far more than the average growth rate of China's GDP is also down to the middle level of developing countries in line with what ? On the contrary, economists advocate the opposite view may be in China in the past the low proportion of GDP, fiscal revenue and to establish links between the higher rate of economic growth. Economists Chris Ding Luo Mo et al 2007 study confirmed that the tax produced a sustained increase in GDP and a huge negative impact - GDP in the 1% tax increase will cause GDP output fell by 2% 至 3%.
If the tax cuts called for substantive international experience is still the important reference for the formulation of fiscal policy, then the practice of developed countries so far revealed three significant financial experience:
First, the world is not a market-oriented manner industrialized powers in its industrialization process is the implementation of high-tax policy The. Western Europe and North America basically completed the major industrialized countries in the time of the proportion of fiscal revenue in GDP is usually only about 10%. These countries are to achieve a higher level of economic development after the implementation of the high-tax policy.
second developed countries from the low-tax financial shape to the process of transformation of higher taxes, new taxes mainly for the construction of the whereabouts of the welfare state. the increase in social welfare spending, accounting for these countries over the past 100 years, the major part of additional revenue . In other words, developed countries to increase fiscal revenue in GDP, the corresponding building a welfare state.
Third, despite the low taxes and high growth there is no absolute correspondence between, but the history of the world's major developed countries experience , low taxes usually means high growth, high taxes mean low growth, usually. Now the high taxes, high welfare developed countries, of low growth, high unemployment and public debt crisis, have made clear the choice that is not prudent fiscal prudence approach. On the contrary, developed countries had to rethink the economics of Adam Smith advocated the originator of the high growth is not sustainable. If we allow the growth rate of fiscal revenue over GDP growth rate, will in the near future to see the adverse consequences of this policy. the world, no country can be far more than the long-term economic growth to maintain fiscal growth situation. Only visionary leadership, focus on the future, to overcome the rigidity of the tax problem, get rid of fiscal performance engineering and inhibit impulses government budget in order to reverse the rapid revenue growth. Logic does not matter if it is not sustainable into the immediate crisis, the main reason is that long enough, and need to be vigilant.
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