Now not the time to rescue

 We all look forward to the Central Government introduced a policy to rescue the market, but waited and waited to have only local government actions and adjust the individual, why? Because now not the time to bail! Why? In my humble opinion, four reasons:
First, any policy regulating the market is not an immediate immediate effect, and will be postponed to a year or so. Now that does not produce an immediate effect, of course, we should long-term perspective, the bases. because the introduction of different policies efforts and priorities will also affect the effect of regulation.
Here are some of the city have been explicitly or implicitly introduced a policy of local government control, but still there is no immediate increase in volume:
1, Hangzhou - the old city can purchase homes, the government must buy the individual to pay the tax subsidies, relaxation room rate period of the transferee and the developed
10 14, the Hangzhou government comprehensive Real Estate Agents Association Vice President, Real Estate Brokerage Co., Ltd. Zhejiang Yuxing Zheng Ying, executive director of the morning to tell the deed tax and stamp duty subsidies, the implementation of   tax subsidies, clearly defined target to buy second homes, real estate development enterprise by lower corporate income tax and other warning sings, but a total of 24 initiatives .<><> the policy one does not immediately obvious, does not appear the same day turnover Although the average transaction price has gone up, but the main city of Hangzhou, a turnover of 47 sets of the previous trading day down 24%; scheduled 15 sets of the previous trading day decreased by 2 sets of .<><> 15 is the first day of rescue, as a second-hand housing transactions for the New Deal's response with a lag, on the day the best indicator of the effect is intended to rescue the market. Hangzhou City Housing Authority official website of Data show that as of 15 evening 6:30, the scheduled copy number the city of Hangzhou is 19 units, scheduled area of 3628.00 square meters, 50 sets of pre-sale copy number. By comparison, Hangzhou, real estate (not including housing) in September this year, the main District average daily volume of less than 53 units, less than 45% in 2007. In addition, according to statistics found room in Hangzhou Branch, October 6th ~ October 12th this week, eight areas of Hangzhou housing (including affordable housing ) about 38 sets of scheduled daily turnover of about 78 sets. yesterday's downturn in reservations and transactions can be seen.
2, Guangzhou --- certainly not this year, the supply price of housing land, while residential land supply are also being considered supply reduction, but in October Golden Week
turnover is still in the doldrums, after the Golden Week, a second-hand transaction was even in this year's land supply.
3, Xi'an --- on the public to buy a certain percentage of housing subsidies given to
Xi'an Municipal Government issued September 4, days, the property market appears lowest volume since September, September 7th largest single-day decline, average residential closing price fell 20.51% over the previous day, the day before the sales area is less than 4,000 square meters. Xi'an Real Estate Information Network Data Research Center on September 7 in the property market report, said that despite the introduction of a subsidy policy for buyers, but buyers still wait and see mood darker.
4, Nanjing --- Members of the public to purchase ordinary housing may be paying back the principal amount of 0.5% or 1% of the financial subsidies
9 27, Nanjing 20 Real Estate announced the New Deal, announced that starting from October 1 of the year, the city's purchase of ordinary housing members of the public may be paying back the principal amount of 0.5% or 1% of the financial subsidies. However, the New Deal, the first day of publication, Nanjing online real estate data shows, at 8 pm that day, Nanjing subscribe for a total of 146 residential real estate property market sets, 37 sets of transactions. Subscription a substantial amount of increase compared to the previous day, and even experts have predicted the property market will thus pick up in Nanjing. However difficult the situation a few days after satisfactory .10 1 March, the formal implementation of Nanjing, the first day of the New Deal, as of the day 21:30 , the city's commercial subscription of 64 sets of sets of transaction 0. The days of the subscription amount and the working families credit up to 60 million
Although Shanghai is not as clear as the introduction of other cities series support to stimulate potential demand, but the property market still has no market value.
Second, is not optimistic the international economy, and now national bailout plan and implementation are not able to stabilize the financial markets, global consumption and investment index has been the desire sharp decline is most turbulent period. at this time to rescue the market introduction of the policy, also arrived on the international situation does not change the psychological impact. as long as the world's financial markets are to have an initial stability, and that the policy of rescue The reaction will be more obvious.
Third, the financial impact of the tsunami is very far-reaching and extensive, reflecting the fastest first affected by the financial and real estate investment and financial operation of the closely related industry, followed by manufacturing (especially import and export), and finally non-necessities of life is the retail and service industries. the country is relatively limited financial resources, the object of choice to relax the credit will have more stringent, to individuals and to strike a balance between enterprises, but also take into account the country's reserve funds adequate and safe. So the best solution is to see the speed of development of the situation and the serious impact on national income of the industry changes and needs further regulation.
four If started now vigorously to save the market may lose most of the effect of macro-control before, causing prices to buy the callback and the result of rational delay, may extend the existence of the overheated property market before the crisis.
All in all, the situation really need to wait and see, after reasonable and appropriate and effective control policies will be launched soon. If you can not meet basic international financial and economic stability, the effect of any short-term control policies are not clear, so it Do not be too high hopes.